Before moving on let me just clarify that this
analysis is not meant to monger fear or accuse the government of anything. It
is a hypothesis based on my historical analysis of post-election trends in
Malaysia, and as with all hypotheses, is unproven and certainly not set in
stone.
This article seeks to analyse and answer two main
questions:
- How possible is it to have some sort of disturbance that will spark unrest?
- What form might it take?
Through a careful examination of past incidences of
civil unrest in Malaysia, 3 incidents in particular stand out for their scale,
their impact on the political narrative of Malaysia, and their nature. The 3
incidents I speak of are the May 13, 1969 riots, the 1987-1988 Operation Lalang
and judicial crisis, and the 1998 sacking of Anwar Ibrahim and the subsequent
Reformasi movement. In considering the events leading up to, during and
following the events, 3 key traits stand out.
Firstly and perhaps most importantly, all 3 incidences
have taken place in the foreground of internal UMNO struggles. In Dr. Kua Kia
Soong’s thesis of May 13, he posits that the riots were in fact a coup d’état
initiated by the ascendant Malay capitalist class under Razak to replace the
Malay aristocratic class lead by Tunku Abdul Rahman [1]. The validity of Dr.
Kua’s statement is subject to debate, but the swift and stunning reversal of
fortunes that Tunku Abdul Rahman suffered cannot be discounted as coincidence.
Even if the riots were not facilitated by the top leadership of the right wing
of UMNO, Razak certainly made full use of the opportunity to grab the reins of
government. Recently, Gerakan veteran Dr. Goh Cheng Teik and ex-UMNO strongman
Mohd Tamrin Abdul Ghafar came out to clarify that May 13 was indeed an internal
coup orchestrated by irate UMNO members against Rahman [2][3].
The 1987-1988 Operation Lalang also had similar
internal rumblings. In fact, the judicial crisis roots lay in the dismissal of
UMNO as an illegal organization due to complaints from Tengku Razaleigh’s UMNO
Team B [4]. The same goes for the mass arrests that followed the Reformasi
movement. Again, it was an inside UMNO fight between then Deputy Prime Minister
Anwar Ibrahim and Mahathir Mohamad [5].
Time and time again, UMNO leaders especially those
from the right wing have shown that they are more than willing to externalize
internal struggles to distract people from the real issues and to eliminate
opposition. Come this October, UMNO internal elections will be held, and it
will be a titanic clash between the reformers under Najib Razak and the
Mahathirists under Muhyiddin’s tutelage. The first shots have already been
fired by Mahathir, calling Najib’s performance a “disappointment” and openly
stating before elections that given a slim victory Najib should give way to
deputy Muhyiddin [6].
2. Need for consolidation of power
The second trait is a need for constitutional/ law
changing. As we all know, the last time UMNO was in government with a minority
of the popular vote was in 1969 [7]. Post-1969, constitutional amendments made
the EC beholden to Barisan Nasional and various laws such as the Sedition Act
were strengthened (See Andrew Yong’s article
in Loyarburok for easy understanding) [8]. Similarly, in 1988 the threat from
the Semangat 46’ coalition formed posed enough of a threat to the UMNO hegemony
of power that the Mahathir felt it necessary to cripple the judiciary and rob
it of its independence[9].These changes in law to consolidate UMNO dominance
have however, often been met with significant opposition. It is because of the
backlash that comes with these changes in the institutions and dilution of the
rule of law that such exercises have needed to be preceded by mass arrests/
unrest preventing any coordinated response. The Reformasi movement of 1998 was
rife with similar arrests, but with a firm 76.56% of seats BN could comfortably
continue its gerrymandering, mal-apportionment exercises [10] One must also
bear in mind that due to 1998 being led by Anwaristas, it took on a different
nature.
At the end of this year, there will be a
re-delineation exercise that threatens to entrench BN firmly in power, no
matter what the popular vote turns out to be in GE 14 [11]. Civil society,
opposition politicians and proactive citizens have already begun raising
awareness of the exercise. The rakyat, especially urban folk are acutely aware
of their rights and attendance at rallies such as the 8th May Kelana
Jaya rally have shown that from here on escalation of civil action can be only
grow [12].
It would require a major distraction on an
unprecedented scale to divert attention away from the re-delineation exercise.
3. Incitement of racial sentiments
The third trait that has preceded such incidents is
the exacerbation ( or in some cases manufacturing) of racial sentiments. This
has largely been the domain of the government-controlled mainstream media. In
1969, the mainstream media reported Labour Party processions as shouting
“Malai-si!” and provoking the Malays [13]. However, such accounts are doubted
and are contradictory to the foreign press accounts that reported the
procession as a show of “discipline” and “genuine restraint” [14].
In 1988, Utusan Malaysia blew the issue of Chinese
educationists out of proportion. What followed were the mass arrests of not
just prominent members of Dong Zong but also of activists and opposition
politicians [15] In 1999, BN blew up fears of Islamization, loss of non-Malay
rights etc to secure a win despite losing the popular vote of Malays to the
Barisan Alternatif [16].
Now the racist rhetoric has reached an all-time high.
From Utusan Malaysia’s “Apa Lagi Cina Mahu” (What More Do The Chinese Want?) ,
an ex-judge’s warning of backlash against the Chinese, to PM Najib’s “Chinese
Tsunami”, all UMNO media seems to be blasting out racism at every avenue. [17]
[18] [19]
A Negative
Cycle
The need to change laws, racial sentiments and UMNO
internal struggles are all interlinked and form part of a negative cycle that
has occurred since May 1969. The government starts to lose popularity and its
grasp on power starts to loosen, thus facilitating the growth of opposition
movements. The government then needs to consolidate its position, and the
bending the law to suit such needs is its ultimate tool. To bend the law
however is to invite dissent. At the same time, the loss of popularity also
sparks internal divisions within UMNO itself. Faced with signification
obstacles, such power struggles are then externalized in the form of a national
crisis to distract from the real issues and to decapitate any unified response.
To provide a raison d’etre for such a national crisis, the mainstream media
exacerbates and incites racial rhetoric. And when the so-called “spontaneous
chaos” ensues, fear takes hold of many and allows the ruling coalition to
remain in power. This standard operating procedure is not endemic to Malaysia
but is something common in the politics and history of many other Southeast
Asian countries with similar problems with diversity and nation building such
as Indonesia and the Philippines (See People Power
revolution and the fall of Suharto’s
regime) [20].
It is my view that given the volatility of the current
political position and the fulfillment of all three key traits, a national incident is bound to happen.
However, despite the incitement of racial sentiments, it is my opinion that any
unrest will not be of a racial nature. Unlike in 1969 and 1988, the issues
raised by the opposition and civil society have been part of national
consciousness and not ethnic-specific [21]. The opposition platform is also
multiracial, unlike in 1969 where it was largely non-Malay, and has enjoyed
multiracial support [22]. The racial baiting by UMNO-controlled media has also
been met with incredible shows of unity from Malaysians from all walks of life
[23].
Therefore any incident will take on the form of mass
arrests in the name of stability and national security. Already 28 Pakatan
Rakyat leaders who spoke at the Kelana Jaya rally have been/ are going to be
called up on charges of sedition [24]. Yesterday,
a group of NGOs lead by Haris Ibrahim’s ABU has called for a 1 million Malaysians
to rally against electoral fraud in Kuala Lumpur (Note: Contrary to what was
reported, in his official statement Haris Ibrahim never called for toppling of
a government, see his blog
for details)[25]. This is the Catch 22 situation faced by every
pseudo-democratic government, where in order to remain in power they dilute the
institutions of democracy, but in so doing radicalize the populace and further
erode their mandate to power. Faced with an escalation of civil disobedience on
this scale, it would be an easy thing for the government to crackdown on
activists, politicians and intellectuals in one fell swoop.
Many a politician used to justify any repression
including use of the Internal Security Act by stating that the majority of
people in Malaysia seemed not to mind as most people voted BN in elections. In
the days of Operation Lalang, this was the case. But this time any action by
the BN government will be without the support of the popular vote.
There is a word used to describe the act of a minority
cracking down on freedoms without consent of the majority: tyranny. Whether or
not such tyranny will continue to work in this day and age, will depend on the strength
of will of the rakyat. Not the work of NGOs, not the ceramahs of politicians,
but the voice of the ordinary citizen in speaking out against injustice.
Again, this is pure speculation on my part but is
nevertheless based on a close analysis of long term historical trends in
Malaysia and throughout the SEA region. In fact, for the sake of this country,
I hope that this entire analysis is rubbish, and that I will be proven
absolutely wrong and a pessimistic idiot. One can only hope.
References
[1] Kua,
Kia Soong. May 13: Declassified Documents
on the Malaysian Riots of 1969. SUARAM, 2007.
[2] “May 13 was not an ethnic phenomenon. It was a
political occurrence, only those who were members of Umno or associated with it
were involved.” – Dr Goh Cheng Teik
“Ex-Gerakan stalwart backs Hadi's May 13
stand” Malaysiakini. May 1, 2013. Available
at http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/228701.
[3] “…the incident was a mini
coup planned by Umno men.” – Mohd Tamrin Abdul Ghafar.
Kuak, Ser Kuang Keng. “Ex-UMNO man defends DAP against
May 13 charge” Malaysiakini. April 30, 2013. Available at http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/228497.
[4] [9] Means, Gordon P. Malaysian Politics: The Second Generation.
Oxford University Press, 1991.
[5] Hartcher, Peter. "Outdated political thuggery
embarrasses Malaysia". The Sydney
Morning Herald. February 23, 2010. Available at http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/outdated-political-thuggery-embarrasses-malaysia-20100222-ornl.html.
[6] Zurairi,
Ar. “Dr M questions BN strategists, says Umno to decide Najib’s fate”. The Malaysian Insider. May 7, 2013.
Available at http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/dr-m-questions-bn-strategists-says-umno-to-decide-najibs-fate.
[7]
Drummond, Stuart & Hawkins, David. The
Malaysian Elections of 1969: An Analysis of the Campaign and the Results. University
of California Press, 1970.
[8]
Rachagan, S. Sothi. Law and the Electoral
Process in Malaysia. University of Malaya Press, 1993.
[10]
Swee-Hock Saw, K. Kesavapany. Malaysia
recent trends and challenges. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2006.
[11]
“Constituency redelineation to be done at year end, says EC”. Malaysiakini. May 10, 2013. Available at
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/229751.
[12]Su-Lyn,
Boo & Ding, Emily. “Thousands pack Kelana Jaya stadium for Pakatan rally”. Malaysian Insider. May 8, 2013.
Available at http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/thousands-pack-kelana-jaya-stadium-for-pakatan-rally.
[13] Abdul
Rahman, Mohd Daud. Ke-Arah Keharmonian
Negara. (Towards National Harmony) Jabatan Kerajaan, 1971. (State Department)
[14] “Malaysia: Requiem for a
Democracy?” Far Eastern Economic Review
May 24th, 1969.
[15] Kua, Kia Soong. 445 Days Under the ISA- 1987-1989.
Suaram Komunikasi, 2010.
[16] Lin, Juo-Yu. A Structural Analysis of the 1999 Malaysian
General Election. Tamkang University, 2002.
[17] Zulkiflee, Bakar.
“Apa lagi orang Cina mahu?” Utusan
Malaysia. May 6, 2013. Available at http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/Pilihan_Raya/20130507/px_03/Apa-lagi-orang-Cina-mahu?.
[18] Aw,
Nigel. “Ex-judge warns Chinese of backlash for 'betrayal'”. Malaysiakini. May 12, 2013. Available at
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/229909.
[19]
“Malaysia GE13: PM Najib blames polls results on 'Chinese tsunami'”. Straits Times. May 6, 2013. Available at
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/malaysia-ge13-pm-najib-blames-polls-results-chinese-tsunami-20130506.
[20] Slater,
Dan. The Architecture of
Authoritarianism: Southeast Asia and the Regeneration of Democratization
Theory. Stanford University Press, 2006.
[21] Among
the issues brought up were corruption, high cost of living etc.
Manisfesto Pakatan Rakyat. Pakatan Rakyat website. April 19, 2013.
Available at http://www.pakatanrakyat.my/files/ENG-Manifesto-BOOK.pdf.
[22] Ong,
Kian Ming. “Here’s proof: It's a Malaysian tsunami, not Chinese only”. Malaysia
Chronicle. May 10, 2013. Available at http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=98901:heres-proof-its-a-malaysian-tsunami-not-chinese-only&Itemid=2.
[23] “Youths
point the way towards unity” The Star. May 12, 2013. Available at http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/5/12/nation/13102027&sec=nation.
[24]
Ramendran, Charles. “Cops to haul up rally organisers and speakers”. The Sun Daily. May 9, 2013. Available at
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/692938.
[25] Anand,
Ram. “1 million street rally planned for KL”. Malaysiakini. May 14, 2013.
Available at http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/230049.
